Part 2 – Do Progressive Income Tax Policies Reduce Inequality?

Introduction
In a 2022 speech, Governor Kathy Hocul (D-NY) said, “Just jump on a bus and head down to Florida where you belong, ok? Get out of town, get out of town because you don’t represent our values, you are not New Yorkers” which at the time was met with cheers and standing ovation. Now, in 2026, Governor Hochul is saying “..cut me the checks if you want to be supportive but maybe the first step should be go down to Palm Beach and see who we can bring back home because our tax base has been eroded”. As discussed in part one, New York has been on a 50 year de-population trend that has spanned multiple administrations and under Governor Hochul’s time as governor and despite a tax base that is not growing proportionally to the rest of the country, income taxes collected have increased may times more than inflation and inequality has increased faster than the rest of the United States. New York is now ranked the 50th (the worst) state in the country for income inequality according to data from the official US GINI Coefficient data and the gap is getting wider over time while nationally, income inequality is decreasing. Is Progressive Tax Policy that bad? Do other states with Progressive Tax Policy fair better?
Data and Methodology
2025 Top Tax Rate Data and Tax Type (Zero, Flat, Progressive) was collected via individual internet searches and published polices from Intuit (makers of TurboTax, not a paid sponsor) and compared with 2024 published GINI Coefficients.
Results
A comparison of the distribution of inequality (GINI Coefficients) in Figure 1 below shows that the distribution of scores in all three groups of tax structures is similar and are approximately normally distributed (black-dashed line). There was no evidence of a difference in the means of inequality scores in the three groups (Test 1, One-way ANOVA Test F=0.9087 P-value: 0.4100)

Figure 2 below is a secondary comparison using a Box and Whisker Plot with a line drawn at GINI = 0.48 to visualize where states with higher-than-average inequality are distributed. The medians of inequality in each group are also similar; however, there are more high-inequality (GINI >= 0.48) states in Progressive Tax States, in number, proportion, and depth of inequality. A one-tailed Z-test of the proportion of high-inequality states in Progressive Tax States (PProgressive= 27.78%) versus proportion of high-inequality states in Non-Progressive Tax States (PNonProgressive =6.25%) (Test 2) yielded a result of Z=-2.1058 (P-value: 0.0176) indicating there IS evidence of a higher proportion of high-inequality states in Progressive Tax States compared to Non-Progressive Tax States with New York being the highest inequality in the country as discussed in
Part 1 and shown below.

Lastly, Figure 3 compares the Top Tax Rate and Inequality. Again, a line is drawn at GINI=0.48 (National Average) to further look at high-inequality states. A third statistical test was performed by analyzing the proportion of high-inequality states after splitting the groups into high tax (Top Tax Rate above the median 4.785%) and low tax rates (Top Tax Rate below 4.785%) and the proportions were 20.8% and 7.69% respectively; however, the Two-Sample Z-test for their Population Proportion did not indicate a statistically significant difference (Z=-1.227, p-value=0.2214)

Conclusions
Sadly, states with Progressive Income Taxation are not fairing better than New York. There is evidence to disprove Progressive’s claim that Progressive Income Taxation reduces income inequality (measured by GINI). Across the United States, the distributions of income inequality in Zero Income Tax, Progressive Income Tax, and Flat Income Tax States are similar to each other (Figure 1) with no difference in the average inequality in the three groups (Test 1). There is evidence that Progressive Income Tax States have a higher proportion of high-inequality states (Test 2) and 5 of the 7 states with the highest total inequality (Figure 3). There is a positive correlation of Top Income Tax Rate with Inequality; however, there is no evidence of a statistical difference in the proportion of high-inequality states in high top tax rate states versus low top rate tax states (Test 3). This is one small view into a portion of the taxes paid by individuals and one economic metric. This doesn’t completely answer the question on if Progressive Income Taxes “work”; however, this is an indicator that states with Progressive Income Taxes have are more likely to have problems with inequality and do not perform as their proponents claim.
About the Author

Samuel Sanfratello is the Owner and Sr. Data Scientist for Rochester Analytics. He has a Master of Science in Applied Business Analytics from American Public University. Samuel is President Emeritus of the Mu Zeta Chapter of Delta Mu Delta International Honor Society in Business, member of Golden Key International Honour Society, and member of The National Society of Leadership and Success.
GitHub: https://github.com/SamSanfratello/2026_Progressive_Tax_Policy


















